Mortgage rates spent April in a tight range, with conforming 30-year fixed hovering around 6.5% and jumbo pricing competitive at 6.25%. Heading into May, three factors will shape the next leg: the May FOMC meeting, fresh jobs and inflation data, and the supply of 10-year Treasury issuance.
For refinancers, our break-even analysis tool says any borrower currently above 7.25% should run new numbers this month. A 0.75% rate drop on a $400k loan saves roughly $200 per month — and our typical refinance pays for itself in 24–30 months.
For first-time buyers, locking a rate this summer is more attractive than waiting. Even if rates drift lower in Q4, home prices in most metros are still rising 3–5% annually. Buying with today's rate and refinancing later is usually the math-correct play.
And for homeowners 62+, the reverse mortgage line of credit becomes more valuable as rates stay elevated — the unused portion of the credit line grows over time. We can illustrate exactly how that looks on your specific home.
